The report says, “The labour market could face significant disruption,” Especially with the rise of advanced AI models like OpenAI’s GPT-4, Google’s Bard, Meta’s LLaMA and others that can instantly automate workflow.
Up to 300 million full-time jobs across the globe could be at risk of becoming automated with AI. Economists have predicted that 18% of work can be computerised as AI evolves and become more intelligent, with white-collar workers being the first to be replaced.
Individuals working in administrative and legal professions face the highest probability of being displaced by automation. However, the impact of the AI boom on jobs that involve manual labour and outdoor tasks is expected to be minimal, according to the report.
Currently, about two-thirds of jobs in the U.S. and across Europe, “Are exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and AI could potentially replace a quarter of the current workforce.
The report adds that while the rapid advancement in AI is likely to cut administrative jobs sooner than later, it also notes that it could help enhance work for workers in the US by freeing up 20-25% of the workload, allowing people to make time for other productive activities.
How soon could this happen
However, before Goldman Sachs’ report, the McKinsey Research Institute published a study in 2018 which predicted that 400 million people across the globe could lose their jobs with the rise of AI before 2030.
The same study also found that AI could account for $3.5 trillion to $5.8 trillion in annual value. Economists at Goldman Sachs have also predicted that in the next 10 years, labour productivity will increase and estimated that AI could increase annual global GDP by 7%.
“Although the impact of AI on the labour market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI,” said the report.
Just recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has also acknowledged some of the risks involved in adopting AI as part of society. Altman says that AI will replace certain jobs in the near future and it could happen a lot faster than we think, “That is the part I worry about the most.”